Hey Democrats, don't get too excited...

One day after seizing both houses of congress in the midterm elections, Democrats were given another reason to jump for joy. The much-embattled Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, resigned his position. His replacement, Robert Gates, was named immediately by President Bush (the Senate still must confirm him when they reconvene).

Rumsfeld will always be remembered for being the architect for the war in Iraq. He’s credited (or faulted) for lobbying for preemptive strikes, and for wrongly convincing Congress and the American public that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. He is, after the President and Vice President, the face of this war.

Four years after the official declaration of war, most Republicans will admit that the Defense Department has made countless mistakes in its execution and prosecution. To name just a few, there were too few troops originally deployed, the Iraqi borders were not secured, there was no exit strategy, and the Iraqi Army was dissolved (imagine thousands of unemployed angry young men with weapons). In addition, it seemed as if Rumsfeld and other administration officials were either unaware or unprepared for the post-Saddam insurgency that has claimed far more American lives than the initial fighting.

Knowing these mistakes, Americans cringed every time they heard Rumsfeld say that he had no regrets on the wars prosecution. Rumsfeld’s stubbornness to not change tactics or concede any wrong-doing led scores of Congressman to condemn him and demand his resignation. Many believe that President Bush’s decision not to fire him cost Republicans the midterms.

So isn’t it great news for Democrats that he’s gone? Doesn’t this mean that the President wants to go in a different direction? Possibly a redeployment of troops (Sen. Obama just called for this)? Is this the President’s way of signaling the end of the Bush Doctrine of preemptive war? We all know that the President was not going to resign. By forcing his chief war advisor to do so could mean a new direction. A victory for diplomacy!

Maybe. Or….

As Iran continues to enrich uranium, thus bringing them closer and closer to a nuclear bomb, the White House and the Defense Department are paying very close attention. President Bush and Vice President Cheney have stressed that a nuclear Iran would be a tremendous threat to the Middle East, and to the entire world. Will they sit idly by as Iran joins the “nuclear club?” Will this tough talking President let his successor handle two nuclear members of the axis of evil? If history is any judge, the answer is no.

You have to imagine that in some drawer in some room in the Pentagon (home of the Defense Department) there is a plan to preemptively attack Iran both from the air and on the ground.

If the US decided to attack Iran, most experts predict they would learn from the mistakes of Iraq. In Iraq, Rumsfeld's Defense Department asked for just enough troops to get the job done. If we were to attack Iran, we would need overwhelming force (Patriot of ’76 will discuss the draft later this week). In other words, this would not be a covert action. The Bush administration would need to enlist the support of Congress (the body that officially declares and funds military action), and the American people. This means Congressional hearings, speeches, and intense lobbying by the President and by the Secretary of Defense. Here’s the question: Would Americans really trust Donald Rumsfeld, again?

Perhaps the President asked Rumseld to step down because the former Defense Secretary doesn’t have the one thing the President needs most: credibility. Would we really believe Rumsfeld if he toured the country preaching about preemptive war because of Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction? Yogi Berra would call that Déjà vu all over again.

If you buy this line of reasoning, then you believe that another preemptive Middle Eastern War is less than two years away.

Here is where Patriot of ’76 will turn it over to you. What does the Rumsfeld resignation mean? Admission of defeat, or preparation for the sequel? A step towards diplomacy, or the first step in the war against Iran?

One thing is for sure- before the Democrats toast to the resignation of the Defense Secretary, it’s worth remembering the President and his advisors understand the political ramifications of every move they make.